Sonoma County coronavirus cases spike to daily record amid grim state, national forecasts

Sonoma County’s newly reported COVID-19 cases spiked to a single-day high of 343 on Tuesday, approaching double the previous record of 197 set back in mid-August, as infection rates around the country continue to explode and reported coronavirus deaths reached an all-time high.

Sonoma County epidemiologist Kate Pack said the spike was part of an ongoing, upward trend in local infections but may have included a bump from delayed data reporting due to Thanksgiving as well.

“It’s likely a combination of factors — both we’re seeing some increasing transmission, but also that we did have that holiday last week,” said Pack, health program manager for Sonoma County Public Health.

The numbers also reflect increased testing capacity and rising demand, as people seek out information that may help them keep themselves and loved ones safe having seen friends and family or anticipating doing so, health experts said.

“It’s a positive thing that more people are coming in to be tested so that we can identify, at the earliest possible opportunity, whether they’re positive or not,” said Dr. Marie Mulligan, interim chief medical officer for Santa Rosa Community Health.

Tuesday’s steep jump comes as California’s soaring case number — approaching 1.3 million people since March — hit a record 20,759 new cases posted Wednesday, a stunning 1.7% increase in a single 24-hour period.

In Sonoma County, 12,622 confirmed COVID cases had been reported as of Wednesday, equal to about 2.5% of the population.

At least 160 people had died of the virus, including three men whose deaths were reported late Tuesday, all of them over age 64. One was a resident of an elder care facility.

Their deaths occurred Nov. 21, 23 and 28. Two men died in the hospital.

Public health officials had feared cases would skyrocket as cooler weather drove people indoors and those wearied by months in isolation began venturing outside their household bubbles.

An estimated 50 million Americans also traveled during Thanksgiving week, despite health officials’ pleas that they refrain from doing so. Those trips are expected to fuel a wave of infections that will hit California hospitals this month and next.

“As a state, the numbers are going in the wrong direction, and the trends are alarming,” state Sen. Mike McGuire, D-Healdsburg, said. “Northern California is faring better than Southern California. The greater L.A. region is trending three to four weeks ahead of Northern California, but the numbers all across the state are rising at concerning rates.

“So being candid, and not wanting to be an alarmist, but the next 60 to 120 days are going to be very challenging,” he said.

The nation’s COVID-19 vaccines should be in the pipeline soon, with the first 327,000 doses allocated to California “arriving on state soil in the next one to three weeks,” McGuire said. But some 70% of the population has to be inoculated before herd immunity can be achieved, he said.

Deputy Sonoma County Public Health Officer Kismet Baldwin said the county was still working out how it would determine who gets the first round of vaccines, though federal guidance prioritizes health care workers most at risk of exposure to the virus and residents of long-term care facilities.

But Baldwin said there remain substantial details to be worked out, and that larger distribution of the vaccine won’t happen until some unknown time next year.

Meanwhile, hospitalization forecasts suggest 78% of the state’s hospital beds will be in use by Christmas Eve, McGuire said, but that the outlook for Northern California suggests surge capacity may be needed in early January, with hospital bed utilization from 80% to 134%, unless residents really “buckle down.”

“The actions that we take will determine how bad it’s going to be in the next three to four months,” McGuire said. “That’s why, as difficult as it is for me to say this, over Hanukkah and Christmas, stay home with your family. Do not host large gatherings. It’s going to be critical to the health of the state.”

Local hospitalization rates have risen slightly, even in the past week, with 38 COVID-positive patients in the hospital registered by the state as of Tuesday, compared to a peak high of 60 on July 28.

Sonoma County Health Officer Sundari Mase said the local case rate remains better than the state average, in part due to consistent restrictions on business activity and social gatherings through most of the pandemic.

Sonoma County has remained since August in the most restrictive of four tiers under the state’s reopening framework, keeping a lid on transmissions that blew wildly out of control in some other regions.

Ninety-nine percent of the state is now under the same restrictions, and Gov. Gavin Newsom telegraphed earlier this week that Californians could expect additional restrictions on activity in the near future unless the trend reverses.

But no one expects the numbers to do anything but rise, given increased social mixing and potential for transmission during the past month and, particularly, over Thanksgiving.

Pack said during a press briefing Wednesday that a slight increase in infections related to gatherings already was evident in early November, based on contact tracing interviews.

Mulligan, at Santa Rosa Community Health, which treats more than 42,000 patients a year, said her organization has seen only “a modest increase” in COVID cases at this point. But she said the results of Thanksgiving gatherings will start appearing soon, given increased awareness of the importance of being tested.

She said her staff has observed tremendous stress among its patients, many of whom are facing food and housing insecurity, in addition to concerns about their health. She said health care providers are actively steering patients to county programs designed to help offset the cost of quarantining and job loss related to COVID, but said many of those infected already face substantial socioeconomic disparities, in addition to the burden of having the virus to fear.

On the national stage, Dr. Robert D. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, forecast a devastating winter, with U.S. COVID-related deaths on track to reach “close to 450,000” by February, barring increased adherence to safety precautions, like face masks.

“The reality is, December and January and February are going to be rough times,” Redfield said during an address to the Chamber of Commerce Foundation. “I actually believe they’re going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation largely because of the stress that it’s going to put on our health care system.”

The nation topped 100,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations on Wednesday and hit 273,321 pandemic fatalities, including a new daily record of 2,760 deaths. That’s almost two people every minute.

A rising death toll “is not a fait accompli, if the American public really embraces social distancing, wearing masks, not letting your guard down in family gatherings,” Redfield said.

“We’re not defenseless. The truth is that mitigation works. But it’s not going to work if half of us do what we need to do. Probably not even if three-quarters do.”

You can reach Staff Writer Mary Callahan at 707-521-5249 or mary.callahan@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @MaryCallahanB.

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to reflect a possible delay in data reporting over Thanksgiving. Sonoma County labs were in full operation during the holiday.